HOUSTON — We’re keeping a close eye on and area of disorganized storms in the western Caribbean that now has a 40% chance of development over the next seven days.
This is the same area that we were watching for development last week. That one became Hurricane Helene
Water temperature right now in the area are in the upper 80s, so even though Helene went through there, there’s plenty of warm water for another system to feed off of and that could come into play early next week.
For the past few days, models have been in disagreement about the area, so there is uncertainty in regards to intensity and where the system might be headed.
It’s the same setup we had right before Helene -- a tropical gyre, which is a broad area of low pressure that forms in the spring and the fall in the Caribbean. Little pieces of energy will spin off from that main low and become tropical systems. This same set up spawned a tropical disturbance that later became Helene. It’s how models also show formation again.
If it does form, it would be in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico, but at this point, it’s not clear where anything that could form would go. It’s just too early to tell. If it does get a name, the next on eon the list is Kirk.
Your best bet is to watch KHOU 11 News a few times a day and download the KHOU 11 app. We’ll keep you posted through the weekend and next week.