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Rafael strengthens to Category 3 hurricane in the Caribbean as it barrels toward Cuba

In the noon update, the National Hurricane Center said Rafael has 115 mph maximum sustained winds. It's expected to weaken when it enters the Gulf.

HOUSTON — The KHOU 11 Weather Team is keeping a close eye on what is now Hurricane Rafael in the Caribbean.

In the noon Wednesday update from the National Hurricane Center, Rafael had strengthened to a Category 3 storm. Maximum sustained winds were at 115 mph as it barreled toward Cuba at 14 mph. The storm is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico later in the week.

Credit: KHOU 11

According to the National Hurricane Center, Rafael is expected to reach category 3 strength right before it makes landfall in Cuba. From there, the storm will move into the Gulf before tracking west. As it moves west the storm will slowly weaken, eventually dropping back to tropical storm status this weekend.

Credit: KHOU
Hurricane Rafael Track

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Fortunately, the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm weakening as it moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The reason for this is cooler waters and high wind shear -- a result of the jet stream being farther south.

Credit: KHOU
Wind Shear Forecast

The combination of a weakening storm and approaching cold front should keep Rafael from making landfall in the United States, but the storm will need to be watched over the coming days.

While November is well past the peak of hurricane season, it’s not too rare to have a tropical storm or hurricane. According to data from the National Hurricane Center, there have been 125 "November" tropical storms or hurricanes active in the Atlantic basin since 1861.

Credit: KHOU
Hurricane Season

KHOU 11 will track Rafael and will post any updates as the system develops.

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