BEAUMONT, Texas — As of 10 p.m. Friday, Beryl remained a Tropical Storm with winds at 60 mph as it headed toward the Texas Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center said.
The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings Beryl onshore along the middle Texas coast as a Cat 1 storm early Monday morning. The cone, however, extends to include parts of Southeast Texas and Matagorda Bay. Even a glancing blow from a strong Cat. 1 hurricane will have impacts on the coast and inland, with a heavy rain threat in play for the Houston area on Monday and Tuesday.
Heavy rain is expected to be the main threat with a band of 5" to 7" or more expected across the Southeast Texas area.
With Texas in Beryl's path, the KHOU 11 weather team is calling for Weather Impact Alert Days on Monday and Tuesday.
Hurricane and storm surge watches have been issued for portions of the western Gulf Coast from the Rio Grande north to High Island.
Right now, the exact landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast remains uncertain, but we will have a better understanding this weekend. It is crucial to stay on top of this forecast through the weekend.
Beryl 10 p.m. statistics
With the 10 p.m. Thursday update, Beryl was a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, moving west-northwest at 13 mph.
Live tropical tracker
Hurricane Beryl forecast cone
Hurricane Beryl models
How moving over the Yucatan Peninsula will affect Hurricane Beryl
As Hurricane Beryl races toward the popular vacation destination spots in the Yucatan Peninsula, it's showing signs of weakening. However, there are two factors involved in how much Beryl could weaken as it travels over land and emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The first factor is what is happening in the atmosphere. Beryl is coming into contact with strong upper-level winds creating wind shear. Wind shear is the change in wind speed with height. Meteorologist Chris Ramirez explains what going over land does to tropical systems.
Why you'll see Beryl's forecast cone widen this weekend
Models are coming into agreement as to where Hurricane Beryl will head over the next couple of days. They all suggest the storm will continue on its path through the southwest Caribbean and go over the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. That's where it’ll lose steam once it interacts with land. Models stay in agreement that it’ll make it into the southern Gulf of Mexico, but by Saturday, you’ll notice the models start to spread out. They spread out even further on Sunday and then Monday. Here's Chief Meteorologist David Paul's explanation about why that's happening.
Why it's so difficult to predict intensity for tropical systems
There are two major parts to a hurricane forecast: track and intensity. Over the past decade, forecasters have achieved large improvements in track forecasting. The forecast cone has gotten slimmer and more precise, giving us a more exact forecast of where the storm is going. But when it comes to the intensity, chief meteorologist David Paul explains why that's become so difficult.
Record-setting Beryl
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season was promised to be an active one, with Colorado State University and NOAA predicting well above normal numbers. In fact, the NOAA forecast for the season was the most aggressive forecast ever produced. Several factors including record warm sea-surface temperatures and a transition to La Nina by late summer were the driving factors in these aggressive forecasts. However, Hurricane Beryl is already shattering records before the peak of the season arrives. Meteorologist Pat Cavlin has a list of records the storm has already broken.
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