BEAUMONT, Texas — It's been sunny and hot the past several days, but big changes are on the way before the weekend wraps up.
The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The merger of these two is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and the Gulf of Mexico.
A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of Mexico coast.
Formation chances over the next 48 hours have increased to 60 percent, and there's an 80 percent chance of formation over the next five days.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain through Saturday, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
By Sunday night, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week.
Latest modeling points towards locally heavy rainfall Sunday night through at least Tuesday.
The EURO model is showing rainfall amounts upward of 12 to 15 inches in the region.
The GFS model is showing upwards of a foot of rain in spots across Southeast Texas from Sunday through Tuesday.
Southeast Texas could see several inches of rainfall Sunday through Tuesday depending on where the tropical moisture surge lands across the coast.
From the National Hurricane Center at 7 p.m. CDT...
The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The merger of these features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of Mexico coast.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2021 Hurricane Season Outlook
The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to produce more storms than average. The reason for this is the lack of El Nino, which typically features more wind shear. We also expect warmer than average sea temperatures and an active West African Monsoon.
After a record-breaking 2020 hurricane season, we now know the Greek alphabet will no longer be used to name storms.
The World Meteorological Organization announced the Greek alphabet will not be used in the future because it "creates a distraction from the communication of hazard and storm warnings and is potentially confusing."
There has been only one other season that used the extra set of names, and that was in 2005. The World Meteorological Organization released a new set of supplemental names that will be used if the season exhausts the standard list.
Be prepared if a storm comes our way
BEFORE THE STORM
- Make a home inventory
- Have a current copy of your declarations page that has your policy number and your agent's number
- Review your policy with your insurance agent to determine if you have adequate coverage
- Repair loose boards, shingles, shutters and downspouts to prevent them from becoming an issue in high winds or torrential rain
- Have an evacuation plan, and include plans for your pets
- Make sure your emergency equipment is in working order, including a battery-powered radio, flashlights and extra batteries. Also, make sure to gather all medicine, replenish your first-aid kit and stock a week's worth of non-perishable food and water
- Charge your cell phone and fill your car with gas
- Program all emergency phone numbers
DURING THE STORM
- If you are advised to evacuate, leave as soon as possible. Retain all related receipts - they may be considered in your claim. If you aren't in a recommended evacuation and you plant to stay home, stay informed by listening to weather alerts
- Keep windows and doors closed at all time, and, if possible, board them up with wooden or metal shutters
- Stay away from the windows and in the center of the room, or, stay in an interior room
- Avoid flood water, as it may be electrically charged from downed power lines
- Check on family members and friends
AFTER THE STORM
- Check to be sure your family members are safe
- If you did evacuate, wait for official notice that it is safe to re-enter your neighborhood and your house
- Document damaged property, and take photos and videos. Don't dispose of any damaged items without approval
- Keep a record of any temporary repairs or expenses to prevent further damage to your property.
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