BEAUMONT, Texas — As the Texas House District 21 runoff race intensifies, voters can't escape the ads. They're everywhere from mailboxes, to TV.
Many 12News viewers have asked us to verify the claims made in the commercials. We brought in an advertising expert from the Dallas-Fort Worth area to get an outsider's opinion.
Vinny Minchillo, a principal at Glass House Strategy, a DFW-based advertising agency, calls this "a fascinating race."
"You're probably getting 10 or 20 texts and emails daily. The race is everywhere," Michillo observed.
"Every trick in the book is being played in this campaign," said Minchillo. "There are different standards of truth telling basically, whether it's a state ad, or a federal race." Federal races have a different threshold that must be met, according to Minchillo.
"So for example, when we send a TV commercial to the to the station, we have to send along with them a piece of paper that proves everything we said," Minchillo explained. "In a state races, it's not always the case."
The same is true for all of the mailers. "Not everybody is going to ask for that proof for every ad," Minchillo said.
It can make a race like this feel like the wild, wild west. "Sometimes you'll find some stuff that gets through, that's pretty slippery," Michillo says.
Minchillo reviewed a series of TV commercials from both campaigns.
"In this race, you have had a lot of, you know, outside forces come in the club for growth, any number of PACs and then a lot of sophisticated people have come to get involved in these campaigns," Minchillo explains.
Covey Claim 1
The first clip we sent to Minchillo refers to what is known as the "Phelan Mansion."
"Dade Phelan is from a wealthy, well-known family," according to the voice-over in the commercial.
That's true, but the ad featuring the "Phelan Mansion" is misleading. The Phelan family gave the estate to the Sisters of Charity in 1957, according to the Tyrrell Historical Library. That's nearly two decades before Phelan was born.
Phelan Claim 1
Then there's this ad from Phelan. "David Covey has proposed increasing your taxes on virtually everything you purchase. Boats, cars, guns, potato chips, even diapers," according to the ad.
This claim needs context.
"The time has come for us to pass a bill to eliminate property taxes," Covey said on the campaign trail.
Covey supports abolishing property taxes and creating a consumption tax.
"So for somebody like me, that gives me the freedom to say wow, he's gonna raise taxes on diapers, he's gonna raise taxes on, you know, your house, your boat, your car, which is technically true, but certainly not the whole story," says Minchillo.
Covey Claim 2
In our next example we hear, "Phelan sided with open border Democrats to kill border security legislation."
That claim also needs context.
The Texas Tribune reported, in 2023, "House Bill 20 sought to create a team of police and deputized citizens to patrol the southern border. The legislation, which critics said would empower 'vigilantes' and endanger the lives of asylum seekers and Hispanic Texans, died when Democrats killed it with a procedural tactic."
Instead, Senate Bill Four gained momentum. Phelan never voted on that piece of legislation, which is normal for House speakers.
Phelan Claim 2
In the next Phelan ad we look at, we hear, "Dade Phelan passed the strongest border security bill in Texas history."
That's debatable. Opponents argue it was the Texas Senate that authored and pushed for Senate Bill Four and not the House leadership.
Phelan Claim 3
The ad goes on to say, "Phelan secured billions for the wall and will build 100 miles more of the wall."
That's generally true, according to the Texas Tribune. Senate Bill Three appropriated $1.54 billion to continue building a barrier and to fund immigration enforcement efforts. Abbott signed it.
The money would be added to at least $1.5 billion in contracts the state has issued since September 2021 to build about 40 miles of border barrier. These funds are in addition to the over $5 billion appropriated in the state's budget to continue funding Operation Lone Star.
Again, opponents argue Phelan is "taking credit" for the Senate's work.
Covey Claim 3
In another Covey ad, we found one claim from Covey's campaign that appears to be false.
"He (Phelan) allowed taxpayer funded benefits for illegal aliens."
Texas Health and Human Services and the National Immigration Law Center refute that.
The state says, "Illegal aliens are only eligible for Medicaid for treatment of an emergency medical condition if they meet all other eligibility criteria, including residency requirements. In order to get Medicaid you have to be a U.S. citizen or a legal permanent resident who has been in the U.S. for at least five years."
Takeaways
"I think watching that reel of ads from both the campaigns and from all the PACs, one of the things that really stuck out to me is what they don't say," says Minchillo.
"No one is mentioning the school vouchers, but that is ultimately, arguably, what's on the ballot here," 12News Anchor Jordan Williams suggested.
But Minchillo doesn't think vouchers really move the voters.
"I've seen it in polls and people are, you know, people are interested in it," he said. "But it's not an issue that moves voters."
Minchillo and other Texas experts believe this race is fundamentally a referendum for the Texas GOP.
For the first time in, possibly more than half a century, we have a sitting speaker whose job is in jeopardy.
We asked Minchillo what that says about the state of Texas politics right now.
"I think you know, a lot of people will talk about, gee, how can we only have two parties?," Minchillo says. "We don't have any choices in our politics. And I think in Texas, we do. I mean, we have for sure, three well defined parties. We have the Democrats and then we have two versions of the Republican Party right now."
Come next Tuesday, Southeast Texas voters have a say in the state's future.
When asked if he'd make any predictions about the race, Minchillo laughed and said he rarely makes predictions.
He did, however, make a quick observation.
"We've got millions of dollars on the line, players from out of state, really important stuff, and it's not so much to try to get somebody elected," he noted. "It's trying to do, it's just to try to kick somebody out. So that's a lot of anger."
His other prediction is that we'll see twice the turnout as we had in the original March primary election. Experts say where those voters live could also factor into the outcome.
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