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Southeast Texas political analyst explains Texas 'trigger law' impact on abortions, midterm elections

12News Political Analyst Tom Taschinger says this ruling will cause a major division in the country.

BEAUMONT, Texas — Now that the U.S. Supreme Court has overturned Roe V Wade, states have the power to make their own laws regarding abortion rights, including banning them. 

In 2021, a law was passed and signed by Governor Greg Abbott called the "trigger law".

This law triggers the high court's decision and would ban nearly all abortions and make them a felony.

Right now, it is unclear when the trigger law would go into effect.

MORE: Which states will likely ban abortion now that Roe v. Wade is overturned?

The exception would only apply when saving the life of a pregnant patient or if the patient is at risk of substantial bodily harm.

MORE: Will lawmakers try to ban out-of-state abortions?

12News Political Analyst Tom Taschinger says this ruling will cause a major division in the country.

"The East and West coast will have states where it is available and in some Midwest states too, but the South West will probably outlaw mostly. About 15 or 20 states already have trigger laws in effect. You're gonna end with a roughly split country."

Political analysts everywhere say this ruling will affect the upcoming midterm elections. But as far as Democrats go, Taschinger says the decision will likely work in their favor.

However, he doesn't think the overturning of Roe v. Wade will be the driving decision for voters this fall, but rather the state of the economy.

In poll after poll, Taschinger says that there's a lot of support for Roe although not an overwhelming number. The majority of voters want abortion legal in either all cases or most cases.

"With this ruling, it will help Democrats on the belief that most people want roe…want abortion available in some form or fashion. Whether it's enough to overcome Abbott, I don't know. Abbott is in the lead by a very comfortable margin," Taschinger said.    

In the governor's race, Taschinger says Beto O'Rourke could close that lead, but it's an uphill climb at this point. 

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