BEAUMONT, Texas — A political science professor at Lamar University is giving Texas about a 20 percent probability of turning blue.
NBC news shows Texas as a gray 'toss up' state on a map of the US.
Texas has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976 when Jimmy Carter defeated Republican Gerald Ford.
Dr. James Nelson has been teaching at Lamar University for 8 years.
He's giving Texas about a 20 percent probability of turning blue.
"Some Democrats could be optimistic and some Republicans could be concerned. We don't have evidence that Texas is going to turn," Nelson said.
Nelson said there are some key counties Joe Biden must win in order to clench Texas, including Jefferson County.
"It's one of the very few closely divided counties in Texas. President Obama barely won Jefferson County as did President Trump last time," Nelson said.
Some other counties to keep an eye on are Dallas, Travis, Harris and the Rio Grande Valley.
"Is there increased turn out in the Rio Grande Valley, is there increased turnout in Travis County? Or some of these places that tend to go blue," Nelson said.
Nelson predicts Fort Worth and Tarrant County will remain red, and said it's important not to underestimate the rural parts of Texas.
"Part of why Republicans maintain a state-wide majority is that they do pretty well in suburban counties and they really dominate rural Texas," Nelson said.
There's 254 counties in Texas and last election the smaller counties added up, giving President Trump the winning edge.
He won by 9 percent in Texas in the 2016 election.